Archive | August, 2014

Paradise Lost as an election guide

28 Aug

..for this week anyway .

Some I have chosen of peculiar grace, elect above the rest, so is my will “

Winston Peters , if he knows one thing its how to mess around with a party list. He did it in 1999 dropping prominent females for no apparent reason. Now hes at it again , a push here , a nudge there a great big shove of the side of the cliff over there. The problem really is that it’s a personality cult inside NZFirst , reminds me of the King and I , no ones head should be above Winstons. Andrew Williams goodbye , you can go and play with Horam and Bloxham.

Stand firm for in his look defiance lours

Collins. How she is still here is anyones guess. Key must be in debt to her. Williamson went for much less. Collins keeps opening her mouth putting both feet, an elbow and a bit of head in …and still keeps going. Her exoneration was one odd claim , the advance to Peters …I shouldnt trust it but oddly it seems tangible. And still Key shrugs and mumbles about the end of the day.

Oh much deceived much failing hapless Eve

poor Pam corkery , getting harangued at the Intermana launch like that , she really should have left it to the professional press secretary …oh is she , shit that’s funny then.

vain glorious and through infamy seeks fame

Peter Dunnes been pushing himself again. He’s all upset about Labour and the Greens and wanting to raise Tax. Peter Dunne was of course Revenue Minister when GST went up. Funny that.

my bowels their repast then bursting forth, afresh with conscious terrors vex me round

out of nowhere Colin Craig’s Conservatives are on the up , well kind of. Its Keys nightmare to have them at 4.6% ..its mine to see them at 5%.

thy judgement to do aught but else free will

seriously the polls though. New Zealand polling tends to be pretty weak. a margin of error of over 3% means Craig’s lift at 4.6 might only be 1 or could be 7.6…similarly is Winston at 3,6 or 10. The Nats seem to get overstated , the methods of polling get slated and yet it’s not a big issue. I would be worried if I used these pollsters to test a product I was taking to market. Just saying..

vacant possession some new trouble raised

in light of the polls I heard key say , extraordinarily in my view , that if he can’t get Winston to the altar hell go to Parliament to force a vote. Might sound manly but it reinforces that he’s acting like its FPP. ( As with Clark version 3 ) he runs a minority Government not a coalition.

erroneous there to wander

Winston obviously wanted to get in on Craig’s patch with his odd talk about Labour and Gays. Very strange. But then most of the talk and discussion is around the 10% of the electorate at most who might swing ( no not like that ) and the rest don’t get a look in.

Weird Weird Weird Weird Weird Election

23 Aug

I wasnt really sure how weird this election would be , but just when I get over the Weirdness out comes another event.
Jamie Whyte continued his pre-election weirdness with some crackers at the start. All that ” Maori privilege ” like the son of Don Brash had risen. Then a spat with the Race Relations commissioner. Nice touch to shore up your vote , but in a room of 100 people only someones arm is statistically an ACT supporter , and then its presumably your right arm…extended quite far out to the right as well. And yet they will be gifted Epsom ( perhaps ) a bizarre part of the MMP arena.

You can’t keep Winston down though , he needs his 5 right arms 5 right legs 2 left arms and a head ( in the statistical room of 100 ) so took the whole campaign even weirder with his racist chinese joke. But its okay , he says , because someone told him it , he’s just the messenger . The same trick Enoch Powell used to play..FFS is how I think the youth would term that.

The youth , there’s something odd about Intermanas play for the “youth” voice. Laille Harre was Minister for Statistics, and lovely person that she seems ( and I would possibly vote for her ) I don’t see how an ex- Minister for Statistics can claim to be with the kids.
What do we want ..standard deviation
when do we want it ..when a conclusive sample can be taken

But that , is not what they chant is it , young people chant ” Fuck John Key ” at an Intermana rally. Key thinks it’s the munich beerhall ( mmm ) and everyone is shocked . Seriously I think young people should shout far worse , and do.

Somehow that video took us on a whole other world of weirdness though that ended with a Labour candidate calling Key ” shylock ” which I think he should have been dropped for , its piss poor to be honest and the most turgid of racist stereotyping.

So I didn’t think we could get weirder , onto the policies. Someone joked that Nicky Hager should have a book out ( actually it was Michelle Boag on National Radio !) and low and behold he did. A weird cracker of a book , one that wont go away and keeps giving more and more detail.

For his part I think Key played it wrong. HE should have been Prime ministerial , stood above it , promised to look at aspects and rejected the hyperbole. Instead he scrapped , sounded arrogant and dug a trench …around Judith Collins. Collins has acted unseemingly as Justice Minister and should go. End of. Key though , has got to the point where leaders become loons. He talks on behalf of the nation and what it thinks ..it’s a bit like Thatcher did. He’s splitting more hairs than elmer fudd over the me myself and my office distinction. He’s reached a point where from now on he will be seen as untrustworthy, its like Blair after Iraq. He might win elections but he’s no longer the nice guy next door. And that analogy around Iraq and Blair seems to remind me of the Hager book , when will it end ? The frenzy around Iraq couldn’t stop until David Kelly killed himself…I hope we can draw a line under this before we get there..

And of course the man I thought was going to be really weird is spending all his time in court. Colin ” sensible ‘ Craig is just not getting into gear, he’s lost the momentum ..I can see him getting 3% maximum. And its hard for him , not that I want him to succeed , but for any new party unless you get a sitting MP to defect ( and even then its hard..Maui Pacific anyone ? ) it seems impossible to get going. Which may be why we are stuck with ACT and United Future and why Kim Dotcom was smart to buddy with Hone.

Interesting Electorates

Tai Tokerau …may be the electorate that determines the outcome of the whole election . Kelvin Davis is running hard for Labour , not sure his constant talk about the SH1 extension being a holiday highway is helpful , but hes going for it. A win for Hone might bring 4 Intermanish MPs in …it’s all on.

Waiaraki. Flavell is fighting for his political life , and possible his parties. Its Tauranga 1999 again. Sykes ran him reasonably close last time and LAbour won the party vote so a genuine 3 way contest.

Tamaki Makuara. Again another pivotal seat to the make up of Parliament. Labour could have recaptured this with a strong candidate. They havent chosen someone with great presence and Rangi should walk this for the maori party.

Te atatu. The dry slap of Alfred Ngaro vs the dry of Phil Twyford. West Auckland as a bell weather seat ?

Ohariu – Peter Dunne , the hair , the bow tie , the one man party , for the love of Andrea Vance ..he’s sure to win …

Napier – with Tremain retiring could Labour steal it back ? They have the cheesiest posters ever NASH in the style of M*A*S*H

Wairarapa – Ron Mark the return …with a retiring MP again an failry competitive field.

Epsom- the most bizarre electorate race in the country. No one seems to want your vote.

Auckland Central another bellweather seat.

I’m still calling the overall result for National , sad I know , but with the need for Winston’s support…

Left Turn the 1999 election a review 14 years later

22 Aug

a book review of a book published 14 years ago but i only just read it , this week…

VUP’s election books have become something of a stable diet for the electoral cycle. If you dont own them then there is forever a gap in your electoral love relationship. If you want to remember a time when Labour had good polls , when whaleoil was a historic by product of whaling , when Peter Dunne campaigned in French ( seriously) , when Helen Clark was the future and a discredited National party were being consigned to the dustbin, when Winston Peters was unpredictable ( mmm) when ACT stood on its own two feet and Laile Harre was a mere wannabe then buy this. Its a great read.

The Flea that wags the Dog ?

9 Aug

Im not sure what to make of the opening weeks of this Election. Key has set his sail or his gear or his co-ordinates or whatever the metaphor is and is praying for it all to be over. By cutting Colin Craig adrift he is hoping that the Nats vote holds up and his friends come through and he can carry on as he has for the last 6 years. His plan B is to claim a First Past the Post victory from a MMP election and put all the pressure on New Zealand First to deliver. Poor Cunliffe has no such option , he can’t claim victory unless Labour plus Greens Plus Intermana can deliver a majority. In essence Cunliffe is going through the motions , yet those motions will see the Nats drop points and at the moment no policy or Labour antics are getting media coverage , and its beneficial.

Because I can not remember any policy over the first few weeks , sure Colin Craig shouted ” I spy chinese man ” and quickly got bowled by Cunliffe and Winston. But thats not policy.

The story so far has been dominated by three things.

1. A politician bankrolling a party with a moral agenda is unlikely to get anywhere ( shock I know ).
2. A past it Libetarian party seems to be shouting the sort of slogans you would expect on talk back radio.
3. A party being bankrolled by a millionaire ( still ? ) who believes the Prime Minister set him up for extradition to the USA is keen to annoy the same Prime Minister ( double shock )
4. I know I said 3 but just consider how many faces from the past keep getting headlines…just an observation.

Now the Conservatives , bless are not going to get anywhere and with every encounter Craig seems more and more amateur and Keys judgement seems spot on.
ACT a party who will be rocking all expectations if they get 2 seats and Intermana a party who will be performing beyond belief if they get 3 seats are dominating the agenda.Everyones reacting and overreacting to some fairly predictable outbursts…yet its taking all the oxygen.

I dont think i can keep looking ..oh and Sugardaddy is offensive …