Do Constituencies Matter ?

6 Sep

Of course not.

Okay a little bit more. Since MMP the swings in constituencies have been up and down.
In 1999 there were 10 changes in electorates.9 went to Labour 1 to Greens. 3 were in the Maori seats away from New Zealand First or the old rump. 1999 was of course a change of Government.
In 2002 there were 4 changes , 3 more to Labour 1 to National. In 2005 there were many changes , though not in Government. National picked up 11 electorates, ACT 1 and the Maori Party 3. 15 seats changed hands in all, the most in any MMP election.
2008 saw another change of Government and 10 seats changed hands. National picked up a further 9 and the Maori Party 1. 2011 had 5 changes. Labour gained 3 back ( though 1 was from the Progressives) 1 from National and 1 from the Maori Party. National gained Christchurch central from Labour.

So 2014. Heres a possibility , that less seats will change hands than at any of the previous MMP elections. Could one of the Maori Party seats change hands …possibly, maybe even 2. But do the parties really resource the potential for seats to change hands..probably not. Labour will struggle to take back Auckland central , they should take back christchurch central. Napier ? Hamilton(s)…it doesnt look like it from here. So another bold prediction of minimal seats changing hands , but still an unknown electoral outcome!


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