5 Jul

By the time I finish writing this, it may all be over. There is nothing more foolish that making predictions about elections, except perhaps the rash of “expert” analysis over the current greek situation. But first..

The situation as currently presented is simple, yet many people want to simplify it further. A Government elected earlier this year on a platform to renegotiate the current financial package has tried to do just that. Now it has come to a decision point. The negotiation has produced what Hillel Steiner termed a “throffer”, it’s not really an offer its more do this or else, even though the this isn’t in your interest. So in simple terms the Government has said we don’t think its good enough, but you’re the people so you decide. Have a referendum, if you accept it then that’s your choice, if you don’t we deal with the consequences.

What is likely to happen ? Well it’s not about the Greeks place in the euro. As Varafouikas points out in The Global Minotaur, kicking Greece out of the euro will be painful and hard for the rest of the Eurozone and only put pressure on the next weakest climber. It is about the deal. If Greece vote no, it’s hardly in anyones interest to ignore that and its hardly likely their wont be a re renegotiation. The alternative is what ? repossess Athens ? If Greece vote yes the Government falls and its unclear who accepts the package without an election , and then they might re vote the Government in. Oh this could be very interesting.

However the analysis is awful. Heres just one example , Mark Lister in Wednesdays NZ Herald. An article titled ” Greek Govt plays chicken with creditors” . Well that’s an interesting angle, they are just asking the people who voted them in to agree with what they are doing, democracy it appears is a game a chicken with creditors. Lister is apparently head of private wealth research at an investment firm. So I can perhaps forgive him not understanding politics. A yes vote says Lister will see a return to normality. normality for Lister is the hideous debt restructure the Greeks are under and a further humiliation of its people. Normality for Lister is more recessions, more difficulty and further renegotiation. Lister sees no link with the recession and the troikas scheme. He also thinks that the Greeks being taught a lesson of take it or starve will ensure those pesky Irish,Portuguese or Spanish voters don’t get any ideas. His understanding of what a yes vote implies seems naive. He’s not the only one.


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