Can Crone win the Auckland Mayoralty ?

23 Jan

Yes.

Ok let me expand .

But first a caveat, or two.

I fully expect Phil Goff to win the Auckland Mayoral race and can’t wait for the Mount Roskill By-Election.

Secondly I am not a supporter of Goff or Crone. I have no personal interest in the outcome.

There are a few background points Team Crone Team need to understand. The last Election had an appallingly low turnout and Brown as incumbent up against a candidate who was , to be honest , just awful didn’t exactly romp home. His vote share was good but certainly not insurmountable. Brown also had an in built advantage of office and prior office. Goff does not have this.

Team Crone need to concentrate on the corridor from North through to Central and out East. Palino won the Northern districts but some on low margins and turnouts. A good campaign could easily add to this. This should be strong territory but Palino didn’t appeal.

Out East is more fertile ground for Crone. Palino  did awful in Howick, they should add votes just on mobilising turnout in that area.

Central- strong ground for National , strong ground for Brown. Maybe they need to lean on the establishment to win this area.

Turnout- maximising core vote won’t be enough. However low turnout is likely to favour Goff as the unions and labour establishment will ensure they get the vote out. Crone needs something similar.

Messages – Crone needs to drop quickly the anti-politician vs politician line. No one needs spoon-feeding that Goff has been on the inside of Politics for 30 years. Its out there, labouring away at this won’t increase vote and Palino managed to get core vote only for his dog whistle ” I hear you ” campaign. Goff is going to remembered as someone who lost an election as Labour leader. You don’t need to message that.

Crone needs to also avoid overplaying her business background. Firstly because its going to be open to attack and secondly , well to be frank not many business people have made good politicians. Its not a badge of honour. She is better to relate to people as a Mother and Auckland. Someone who traverses daily the traffic the bills and Auckland life. Not someone who spends 4 days a week in Wellington with expenses.

Housing is not an issue they should go near…because frankly they don’t have an answer or a toolbox equipped for it. Understand and empathise but what can you do ? The people who vote in local elections tend to be homeowners and ones who haven’t moved in a while. Do they want to know the house they own is in need of a correction ?

 

So I am not writing Crone off – particularly if she distances herself from Michelle Boag, but if I was a betting man I would still be backing Goff. And if I was a voter I would back neither !

 

 

 

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