Iowa and the US President

31 Jan

It used to be that some candidates didn’t even declare if they were running until the caucus and primary season were out of the way. JFK didn’t know what was happening after his Primaries and Nixon had to fly to New York to sweeten Rockefeller during the Convention. Then the Primaries became everything, and momentum in the early races and states was everything. Think back to Clintons 3rd place in New Hampshire in 92 or even Obama getting a “result” in 2008.

Yet this year things seem different. The pre-primary season has been long, it was nearly 6 months ago that these candidates showed how little self respect they really have and stood in front of the Iowa butter cow, a rancid 100 year old matured milk statue. Any yet we are still none the wiser that there is momentum. Two candidates who no one expected to keep going are still making the Political weather. The republicans have the biggest challenge. Trump can’t win the Presidency but the more the party tries to stop him, the stronger he gets. It seems in stopping Trump the whole edifice may come down. A lose-lose scenario if you like.

Then there is Saunders. Again we are likely to hear his voice , even if he doesn’t make it, all the way to the election. How does America look at this ? It seems odd that these differing views are all being pushed through some 18th Century voting system in the hope of getting a result that works. They will get a result, will it work ? I suspect not, and perhaps now is the time to look at voting reform in the US. Let Trump stand against Saunders and Clinton and Rubio. The Obama campaigns ( and many others in recent years in different countries ) have been focussed on the marginal middle. Those likely to vote with a slight amount of uncertainty who get very direct messaging. 2016 may change the way these micro campaigns are managed. Those with strong views on the margins are making a load noise. They can’t be silenced yet at the same time they have no real chance of winning …or maybe they do.

I would rule anything out except this. After New Hampshire I suspect we will still be none the wiser, and this topsy turvy world may continue until Easter and beyond. Its been a crazy election so far, but I suspect its only just starting !

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