Archive | December, 2016

Listening to my inner Trump ?

25 Dec

This is something I wrote in April which I abandoned at the time, I wish he had as well ….

 

Listening to my inner Trump?

 

In August 2015 I abandoned myself to the idea that Trump for President was more than a marketing gimmick. This was going to be real. Trump did what only a serious contender could do. He went to the temple of the farm people of Iowa and paid his thanks at the feet of its rancid butter cow.

 

Now let me explain, over the period since then I have returned to the question, and asked anyone else who cares to listen (which isn’t many people) , how is a candidate that in any other time would not be taken seriously making the political weather? Or am I wrong? Do I need to learn to love my inner Trump? Trump the stand up populist, Trump the clear crowd tickler, Trump the Rancid butter cow worshipper.

 

So there he was in August 2015. He wore his cap with his name on, looking like a man who may be escaping from a rest home, clear identification being helpful to assisting his safe return. In 2015 American politics may be run on smart data, the gurus of world electioneering fall at the feet of data geeks like Jim Messina. While Indian Premier Modi does 3D virtual campaign speeches in multiple venues at the same time, Trump aspires to more simplistic methods. Building a wall being a prime example. Let’s return to that though.

 

The pre-primary phase saw all the potential candidates descend on a farm fair and seek the endorsement of the butter cow. Sculpted some say from Butter that in parts is over 100 years old. The cow represents, well butter and farming I guess, but mainly votes. A very basic, rural and small town matter yet everyone comes. It used to be to have a photo taken with some Beer and Chicken Wings, chatting to happy farmers. Now this is seen as a starting point for serious candidates, for who would dare defy the Cow. The butter cow even has its own twitter account. It has several. Hang on it’s a sculpted Cow, made from butter that is rumoured to be up to 100 years old. It doesn’t really have a twitter account does it? It was even claimed that candidate O’Malley (no I don’t remember him either) had a selfie taken with the butter cow.

 

 So reality is suspended. This is Democracy in the electronic age. Newspapers built up democracy with a growing literacy, social media may be dumbing us down and asking us to suspend our reality. But for how long? I can suspend my reality and imagine the Cow is tweeting, I can even assume that the politicians and public join me in this. But from that point on the reality has stayed suspended.

 

Trump has been suspending our reality on a daily basis – but am I being unkind. Do I need to look for my inner Trump?

 

Here’s some examples – The Wall. Of course no ones going to build a wall between the US and Mexico. And if they were they would need to be more debates about joint construction standards, what materials would be suitable? maybe advertising could be displayed, but no its not going to happen. We know it, he knows it, we know he knows it and he knows we now he knows it. Yet he persists, should I just laugh at being in the know? Should I trust a politician who is clearly telling me something he wont do, but pretending he will, more or less than a politician who deludes himself into thinking he will deliver on something that I clearly know he wont-gun control for example.

 

How about another example? Well I heard Trump talk the other day about American companies using Indian call centre works. That Trump told the audience is going to stop. Of course it isn’t going to stop, how could it? If American businesses can’t employ cheap labour from India they will just become Indian businesses selling cheap services back to America. But we know he has fired another prejudice at us and it scatters like a water bomb a splash here, a soaking there. Its no longer dog whistle politics, its Pavlovian.

 

By giving us the far fetched unreal version of reality Trump takes a whole group of people with him, those who perhaps want to believe. Or simply don’t care. Indeed 30 years ago Trump wrote “People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest…I call it truthful hyperbole”. Ponder that – a truthful extreme statement not to be taken truthfully. Cheering Muslims, criminal Mexicans, Obamas schooling, Tax. Is this what populism looks like? Get a statement that is clearly wrong out in the open and stare at it until enough people become convinced it has merit. It’s the blue/grey dress of the political world.

 

Michael Parenti used to argue that entertainment concealed political statements because we were too busy being entertained to challenge it. At a time when many election campaigns are driven by concentrating on a few people who may be persuaded to change their vote, whose thought process may be more susceptible to an advert during a soap opera than a sports program along comes Trump with a roller brush and a pot of paint and just daubs across our vision. Its hard to see behind the zig-zag lines. Now we are left peeking into the unknown. I blame the Cow.

And The Monkey Learned Nothing — HONG KONG REVIEW OF BOOKS 香港書評

21 Dec

Sean Mahoney on Tom Lutz’s epic travel micronarrative compendium, Jimmy Cliff, and whether monkeys are manipulative arseholes as well as highly intelligent performers. Tom Lutz, And The Monkey Learned Nothing : Dispatches From A Life In Transit (University of Iowa Press, 2016) 240pp. Sometimes it seems the world is getting smaller, closer and more interconnected. I can […]

via And The Monkey Learned Nothing — HONG KONG REVIEW OF BOOKS 香港書評

Corporal Jones guide to the Euro

13 Dec

Disclaimer : I won this book earlier this year in a rather surprising caption competition from the wonderful Lion and Unicorn peeps.

Not another Brexit book but one on the policy,history and issues that have arisen for Countries engaged in the single currency. At times this book is like the Corporal Jones guide to the Euro, the authors ” Do not like it, they do not like it.” over and over. Not the cold steel but the Hard Euro. At times this gets in the way of some insightful and important analysis. The Euro has been a flop, it could never have worked on the terms it was created on, and the participants seem to have few if any options. The negative impact of the Euro on countries like Ireland and Greece are covered in a readable way. The authors have concluded that divorce is the only option left and despite the pain and the mess this might cause, it should be worked through.

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They are contemptuous of those who have tried to make the Euro more palatable, withering put downs of Yanis Varoufakis abound, the most quotable being ” No amount of swooning over Varoufakis can disguise the fact he’s a politics lecturer in a leather jacket” Ouch. I know its a quote in the book but clearly a position shared by the authors. The left it seems, much like the right is split on this issue ( The Euro not Varoufakis !).

The Euro looks to be in deep trouble at the moment, if it bounces back it will be a whole new Europe that emerges with it. If it dies then so too does the current version of Europe. In light of Brexit, the Italian Referendum and as we near the French Presidential elections, Corporal Jones of the Euro is returning.Only this time its “ Don’t Panic”

Incumbency in NZ Local Elections

10 Dec

Incumbency in New Zealand Local Elections

New Zealand Council elections operate in what at times feels like a vacuum. There are no party names to guide voters intentions, though this is slowly being chipped away at.One issue considered of significance,though little analysed or understood is the power of incumbency. The low number of candidates, the lack of party infrastructure to “ get out the vote” and the relatively low-level of political combat means that those studies that have been undertaken have indicated that incumbents do well.

Graham Bush tested the idea that incumbents did well even in partisan contests looking at the 1980 Local Body Elections. (Bush, 1981). In the late 1970s Auckland had a 59% incumbency rate, and other cities were showing that Councillors left by death or retirement not through voters at the ballot box. Bush showed that in the main cities in 1980 incumbents had a 79.2% success rate whereas non-incumbents had a 26.6 % success rate. Where party or group labels were not applied to candidates then he found the advantages of incumbency were compounded. “Notability will normally be the leading criterion, and being a sitting councillor is an obvious mark of this characteristic.” (Bush, 1981) Bush found nearly 90% of non-partisan incumbents were re-elected. He also found a high proportion of sitting members offered themselves for re-election, making entry into local body politics restrictive.
Whilst there are more complex models for  measuring the impact of incumbency, Bush’s crude analysis provides something of both a framework and also poses some interesting questions.(For example Boyne et al ). However caution needs to be held over attributing a lot of weight to the comparison between incumbents success rates and non incumbents success rates. Generally there is 1 incumbent and 1 seat, and a higher proportion of contestants than incumbents.
Updating Bush’s figures to look at the 2013  elections for Auckland City Council shows that 17 of the 21 members stood for office and 14 of them won.So 66.6% of the Council returned and of those that chose to stand 82% were successful. In 2016 the figures were similar with 17 members standing for election, but this time 15 winning, or 88%.

Having taken a rather unscientific look at District Councils in the Upper North Island at the 2016 elections we find an even greater correlation between incumbency and re-election.

District Members Stood Elected % success % incumbent
Far North 10 9 9 100% 90%
Whangerai 14 14 11 79% 79%
Thames Coromandel 9 6 5 83% 56%
Hauraki DC 13 10 8 80% 62%
Waikato DC 14 9 8 89% 57%
Matamata piako 12 7 7 100% 58%
Hamilton city 13 8 8 100% 62%
Waipa 13 11 11 100% 85%
Waitomo 7 6 6 100% 86%
Otorohanga 8 5 5 100% 63%
South Waikato 11 6 6 100% 55%
Tauranga 11 8 6 75% 55%
Kaweara 9 7 6 86% 67%
Western Bay of Plenty 12 9 7 78% 58%
Whakatane 11 11 9 82% 82%
Taupo 11 9 8 89% 73%
New Plymouth 15 9 8 89% 53%
Wanganui 13 9 6 67% 46%
South Taranki 13 7 6 86% 46%
Stratford 11 6 6 100% 55%
Total 230 166 146 88% 63%

Some stand out things here, firstly 88% of those that choose to stand again were successful. This is a challenge to democratic renewal. You would also wonder why out of the 20 Councils looked at 8 returned all those members who chose to stand . Fine I guess if the public are 100% satisfied with what those Councils are doing.

I haven’t looked at the number of contestants in these seats which may also be a bearing on contestability and choice. I was struck though by a recent essay which considers that Local Government is now more Governance than representation ( Johnston 2016 ). Theres something to ponder here ?

 

References 

G Boyne,O James,P John and N Petrovsky, Democracy and Government Performance : Holding Incumbents Accountable in English Local Governments,

GWA Bush “ Incumbency in the 1980 Local Body Elections”, Political Science 33,1981

Karen Johnston, The Nature of Governance in New Zealand’s Local Government , in Local Government in New Zealand eds Drage and Cheyne 2016

 

Does the Mt Roskill by-election matter

1 Dec

..the answer is of course not.

The Mount Roskill by-election seems to be a reasonable bit of light entertainment . Caused by the long serving MP deciding to get a golden parachute into the Auckland mayoralty ( theres a bit more to it than that but not much more ). There have been periodic flutters of excitement about the seat. In the 2014 General Election although Goff won the seat, National won the most second preferences. Could there be an upset ? Unlikely though it seems the statistics were, and are, plausible. Some are arguing that this could come about by a low turnout. What constitutes a low turnout may be below 35%. Who knows.

The ethnic diversity of the seat has also thrown in question whether Labours candidate ( a white european male who has previously worked for Phil Goff ) is quite offering the type of candidate the electorate wants, or more importantly perhaps the type of candidate it needs. This has created a vacancy, at least in his head, for Rohan Nauhuria and his Peoples Party. A party focussing primarily on  voters with Indian or Chinese ethnicity. The Peoples Party may be set to be 2017’s Internet Party. Should they prove to be successful though, which I am doubtful of, I won’t eat my hat. I will however eat something either Inidan or Chinese which would be more appetising,tasty and palatable. But I digress.

National then with the potential glimmer of winning, a glimmer that would probably see the end of Andrew Little chose a rather tame candidate. She’s currently a list MP and although Parmjeet Parmar may reflect the constituencies ethnicity with greater accuracy than Michael Wood, she’s hardly come out as a dynamic go-getter. Today she is touring Pak N Save with John Key – what a life.

There may have been a punch up, we don’t really know. Some claim there was, there are many others who deny it. What could be more exciting than a punch up at a by-election. A lot it seems. Even if National win it and cement their custard cream capitalism onto the Nation for another 9 years, the by-election is still meaningless. If Labour win , well so what. But the broader question if you excuse my lack of concern around the outcome is that by-elections have an odd place in MMP. Theres a set of problems we never got round to resolving. The last review of MMP raised some, though not all.

Historically by-elections were more important. Firstly because all MPs were directly elected. We were never more than a heartbeat away from one. Under MMP many Mps come and go without ever having to refer this to the electorate. Aaron Gilmore is a good example of tucking away an embarrassment and moving on. Mike Sabin is one from the old school ( the exception proving the point you understand ). Under MMP parties can replenish whenever they feel like it, and often do.  The last review of MMP considered how the replacement of List MPs allowed for proportionate representation to remain. However that becomes a mockery if, as in Northland in 2015, a seat changes hands in a by-election. Why then bother to replace List Mps to keep proportionate numbers, when we didn’t bother to hound Brendan Horan out of Parliament when he shifted his allegiance from New Zealand First to Independent Weathermen.

The issue that really exercised the MMP review was that list MPs, such as Parmjeet Parmar, can contest by-elections without having to resign. I have to say I am less exercised by this than by the ability of List MPs to change allegiance or to top up dead list MPs but not dead directly elected ones. If Parmar wins, incidentally, she is replaced by Misa Fia Turner. Turner it is claimed thinks Trump is anointed by God. This may be true, God is hilarious at the best of times. She may actually not be a Misa, and lists her interests as praying,reading and networking. I am reminded of the old Mars bar ads “ Work,rest and Pray “

So its been great entertainment, theres possibly a twist in the tail, but even if there is who cares ? Its time I think to have a re-think on the role of by-elections under MMP and create some consistency across the spectrum.